Reducing air travel climate effects requires more than technological innovation and carbon pricing, say researchers

The continuing rise in air passenger traffic is resulting in more emissions in the atmosphere—an obstacle to achieving aviation net-zero emissions by mid-century as enshrined in the EU Climate Law. The transition must involve a systemic change.

The aviation sector is both highly dependent on fossil fuels and continuing to grow. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from air travel are projected to triple by 2050, by which time the EU should have achieved economy-wide net-zero emissions.

JRC research has found that, beyond technological innovation in emission-free electric and hydrogen propulsion, the transition needs to include policy measures that make the polluter pay, R&D investment, subsidies and promoting alternatives to flying.

The results are published in the paper “Transition to sustainability in the European Union aviation system,” which explores the significance of place-based dimensions of European aviation transition policies.

Aviation: A ‘hard-to-abate’ sector

The aviation sector in Europe comprises more than 500 airports, with high-transit hubs such as Paris Charles de Gaulle, Frankfurt Airport and Schiphol Airport. In 2023, 10.2 million flights transported 1.19 billion passengers through Europe’s top 40 airports (92 % of the 2019 level).

With air travel recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, compared to 2023, an average annual growth rate of 4.7% in passenger traffic is anticipated for the next two decades, which may result in CO₂ emissions tripling by 2050, threatening net-zero goals.

Aviation also releases substances like nitrogen oxides, sulfate aerosols, particulates and water vapor which have non-CO₂ effects with a warming impact much greater than that of CO₂ emissions alone. This makes clear the relevance of aviation from a global warming perspective. The technological barriers to reducing aviation’s environmental impact have led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to classify aviation as a ‘hard-to-abate’ sector.

How can aviation meet the net-zero emissions target?

The authors of the paper investigate existing gaps and barriers between the current EU policies and the recommendations to meet the European Green Deal targets—including net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050.

The systematic literature review conducted by the authors has identified three primary levers for achieving net-zero aviation:

• the substitution of fossil fuels with alternative energy sources,
• the improvement of energy efficiency through technological innovations and, among other measures, a faster replacement of inefficient aircraft and more efficient traffic management.
• the modification of travel demand through behavioral and economic incentives.

Building on this foundation, they mapped policy initiatives at European, national and regional levels, examining the interactions between regulatory frameworks, infrastructure investments, tax policies and subsidies in activating these levers.

The analysis takes into consideration a range of policy measures, including carbon pricing mechanisms, green technology subsidies, carbon emission compensation schemes and alternative modes of transportation.

One of the central issues when it comes to the aviation sector is its high dependency on fossil fuels, and the urgency for zero-carbon propulsion technologies as alternatives. Currently, the most promising technologies are electric and hydrogen-based propulsion, but they are still far from the required technological readiness level for widespread deployment.

This situation positions sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) as a crucial element of the transition and an important way to decarbonize aviation while other technologies are being developed. However, the economics of SAF and its production need to be urgently increased since they are expected to represent just 0.53 % of the aviation fuel required in 2024.

The Commission is already active in promoting measures to boost the production, supply and uptake of SAFs in the EU, under the RefuelEU Aviation Regulation. Under the regulation, aviation fuel suppliers will have to blend increasing amounts of SAFs with kerosene, starting with a 2% minimum blend in 2025, and rising to 70% in 2050. The regulation is expected to reduce aviation CO₂ emissions by around two thirds by 2050 compared to a ‘no action’ scenario, and to improve air quality.

Beyond technological innovation: The role of transformative innovation policies

To achieve net zero emissions in aviation by 2050, there’s more to be done. Governmental measures, including regulation, research and development investment, subsidies, promoting alternatives to flying and effective communication strategies have a crucial role to play.

Fundamentally, the study reveals that it is essential to incorporate transformative innovation with a place-based systemic, and transformative approach to the European aviation sector’s transition to sustainability.

This requires an effort to coordinate the local, national and European levels, aligning education, environmental, energy and mobility policies to accelerate the technological readiness of hydrogen and electric propulsion, boost the production of SAFs and offer viable alternatives to flying.

Place-based policies are comprehensive, covering local, regional, national and international governance levels. They expand the focus from the aviation-specific analysis to a challenge-oriented approach, which includes a more comprehensive understanding of diverse sociotechnical systems (energy, mobility, industry, digital, tourism, infrastructures, etc.).

For example, regional investments in hydrogen development could be of key importance for sustainable aviation fuels and regional airports, which can become integrated energy and mobility hubs that promote alternative transport modes.

Creating these transition pathways requires the development of a deep understanding of the complexity of the problem and putting the perspective of those directly affected at the center of a proposed solution. This requires engagement, deliberation and co-creation, paving the way to a fair transition, leaving nobody behind.

Background

The study is a first issue of a Working Paper Series on “Transforming territories.” This series pulls together scientific contributions to bring new perspectives on the design and implementation of place-based transformative innovation approaches and aims to trigger further policy debate about the role of places in transforming society for a better life of EU citizens.

Additionally, the working paper series points out their relevance for the European policy agenda of prosperity, security and democracy, with a particular focus on competitiveness in the twin transition.

Provided by
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)