Despite the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission’s promise to deliver 5,000 MW to the national grid, Nigerians have continued to complain about poor electricity supply. The power sector’s underperformance has been attributed to poor infrastructure and inadequate funding writes OPEOLUWANI AKINTAYO
At the height of the frequent power grid collapses experienced last year, the Nigeria Electricity Regulatory Commission, promised to deliver at least 5,000MW to electricity consumers starting last July.
However, for almost one year, NERC has not been able to fulfil its promise, as Nigerians still lament poor electricity supply.
Although the country currently has 29 power plants with a combined capacity of 13,461MW, they have been generating below 5,000MW for some years. Checks on the website of the Nigerian Electricity Systems Operator showed that the peak generation so far was around 4,841.50MW per day.
The latest report by NERC also put the average available power generation capacity at 4,508.38MW, the average hourly generation stood at 3,556.16MWh/h, while the total quarterly generation from 26 grid-connected generating plants across the country was put at 7,766.66GWh.
Generation of 4,508.38MW means a decline of 203.96MW from 4,712.34MW recorded in 2022/Q1.
However, the Association of Nigerian Electricity Distributors, the umbrella body of electricity distribution companies, disclosed last year that the country requires 30,000MW of electricity generation for Nigerians to enjoy a stable supply.
In a bid to improve electricity supply, the Chairman of NERC, Sanusi Garba, disclosed that the entire value chain of the power sector was committed to delivering at least 5,000MW per day of electricity to consumers, starting from July last year.
At that time, the Head of Corporate Communications, Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc, Henrietta Ighomrore, told The PUNCH that NERC was committed to enforcing the Power Purchase Agreements between the trading company and Gencos.
However, in her recent response to The PUNCH’s enquiry on why the Gencos have been unable to deliver the promised 5,000MW, Ighomrore blamed the situation on lack of funds and forex scarcity.
“I think you should reach out to NERC to get the context and response. The entire sector is battling liquidity challenges and forex volatility,” Ighomrore said.
NERC’s spokesperson could not be reached for his comment.
Recently, the Discos had lamented the low power supply from the Gencos, leading to load shedding.
The country has continued to witness low power generation despite billions already invested to boost both generation and distribution.
As part of efforts to increase power generation, NERC recently issued 11 new electricity generation licenses. Two of the existing licenses were also renewed, while it transferred one on-grid generation license.
The commission also approved 41 mini-grid registration/permits and granted an aggregate capacity of 186.06 MW captive power generation permits to seven new companies. Twelve Metering Service Providers consisting of eight metre installers, three meter manufacturers and one metre importer were also approved by the commission in the first quarter of 2022, according to information sourced from NERC’s latest report.
NERC explained that the drop in power generation was driven largely by Afam VI, Jebba, Kainji and Egbin ST power plants that recorded a reduction of -70.19MW, -114.12MW, -122.41MW, and -202.73MW respectively.
The combined hourly output of all the units in a power plant varies in accordance with grid demand and availability of the units. A plant’s average hourly output throughout the quarter is an indication of the operational health of the power plant as well as the overall grid demand during the period because a plant is only dispatched when there is a load in need of power on the system.
In 2022/Q2, the grid’s average hourly generation was out at 3,556.16MWh/h, representing a decrease of 540.15MWh/h from 4,096.31MWh/h in 2022/Q1.
An analysis of performances by some of the plants revealed that the average hourly generation of Geregu NIPP, Delta, Egbin, Sapele, Afam IV – V, Shiroro, Kainji, Jebba and Dadin Kowa plants decreased by 51.61MWh/h, 30.67MWh/h, 7.61MWh/h, 4.93MWh/h, 122.75MWh/h, 156.49MWh/h, 128.48MWh/h, and 20.57MWh/h respectively in 2022/Q2 compared to 2022/Q1.
Conversely, the average hourly generation of Omotosho, Olorunsogo, Sapele NIPP, Alaoji NIPP, Geregu NIPP, Olorunsogo NIPP, Omotosho NIPP, Omoku, Azura and Ibom power plants increased by 47.91MWh/h, 63.36MWh/h, 9.49MWh/h, 3.89MWh/h, 53.89MWh/h, 66.74MWh/h, 2.09MWh/h, 1.64MWh/h, 68.23MWh/h, and 19.11MWh/h respectively.
The low generation suffered by Kainji, Jebba, Afam VI and Egbin was due to units that were unavailable due to technical faults and annual preventive maintenance while Afam
VI and Egbin were due to gas constraints. Kainji was reported to have gone on annual preventive maintenance in the second quarter of 2022, which coincided with the onset of the rainy season, leading to suboptimal use of the waterhead available at that time.
NERC said hydro plants should be mandated to carry out all planned maintenance before the onset of the rainy season.
“Furthermore, the system operator should coordinate planned maintenance of all power plants to ensure minimal disruption to capacity utilisation and energy generation”, the commission said in a note.
The total generation in 2022/Q2 was 7,766.66GWh, representing a decrease of 1,081.38GWh from the 8,848.04GWh generated in 2022/Q1. Total generation of Geregu, Delta, Egbin, Sapele, Afam IV – V, Shiroro, Kainji, Jebba and plants decreased by 105.72GWh, 57.69GWh, 233.30GWh, 15.69GWh, 9.66GWh, 261.12GWh, 332.10GWh and 271.93GWh respectively in 2022/Q2 compared to 2022/Q1.
Conversely, the total generation of Omotosho, Olorunsogo, Sapele NIPP, Alaoji NIPP, Geregu NIPP, Olorunsogo NIPP, Omotosho NIPP, Omoku, Azura and Ibom Power plants increased by 106.66GWh, 140.39GWh, 22.25GWh, 10.09GWh, 118.95GWh, 146.28GWh, 6.48GWh, 4.70GWh, 157.02GWh, and 42.19GWh respectively.
During 2022/Q2, Geregu NIPP carried out condenser joint expansion while Olorunsogo gas reported compressor stalling. Jebba Hydro also reported generator winding faults.
Other issues that caused generation decline during the quarter were faults (oil leakage on governor runner head, high thrust bearing temperature, generator winding, high rotor vibration, high inlet differential pressure and defective air inlet filter housing), routine maintenance, low water levels, as well as shortages of gas supply.
To improve this performance, the commission said it had commenced sensitisation of the market towards partial activation of contracts which is expected to increase cash flow security and allow GenCos to do better Operation and Maintenance, thereby improving the reliability of their units.
Load factor is the amount of energy that a power plant generated over a certain period relative to its available capacity for the same period. The load factor plays a significant role in the cost of the generation per unit MWh. The higher the load factor of a plant, the better the capacity utilisation and profitability as the fixed costs of generation plants are spread across more MWh dispatched. It is important to note that the load factor reflects how well a plant is dispatched over a period relative to its availability, which is usually a reflection of demand and the capacity to evacuate power from the station.
Across all the grid-connected power plants, the average load factor in 2022/Q2 was 75.95 per cent. This means that 24.05 per cent of the available capacity of Gencos in this quarter was not dispatched. The 75.95 per cent load factor recorded in 2022/Q2 represents a decrease of 11.07 percentage points from the 87.02 per cent average load factor recorded in 2022/Q1.
Six power plants – Jebba, Dadin Kowa, Kainji, Rivers IPP, Azura IPP, and Geregu NIPP had over 90 per cent of their available capacities dispatched in 2022/Q2. With the exception of Shiroro, all other hydro plants continued to experience a high dispatch rate on mandatory and priority dispatch of hydropower plants.
NERC said its Order mandates that hydro plants which are the cheapest energy generation source within the mix get priority dispatch in an effort to reduce the wholesale cost of energy for consumers.
Similarly, Alaoji NIPP, Olorunsogo, Rivers NIPP, Omotosho, Egin Gas, Geregu NIPP, Omoku, Sapele, and Jebba power plants experienced increased load factor performance between 2022/Q1 and 2022/Q2. This increased load factor performance of these plants can be attributable to a lower incidence of reduced generation in response to system frequency, NERC said.
On the other hand, Olorunsogo NIPP, Geregu, Dadin Kowa, Kainji, Omotosho NIPP, Azura, Okpai, Paras, Afam IV – V, Afam VI, Delta GS, Trans Amadi, Shiroro, Ibom and Odukpani power plants experienced decreased load factor performance in 2022/Q2 compared to 2022/Q1.
NERC said it has noted with concern the decline in load factor in spite of the overall reduction in available capacity.
“Some of the potential causes of this phenomenon are –poor coordination between the system operator and the DisCos on real-time energy offtake; and the commencement of the rainy season in 2022/Q2 which caused many DisCos to undertake load shedding as a result of their weak infrastructure,” NERC said.
Notwithstanding, the Commission said it has restarted the Situation Room oversight, which was first introduced at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Situation Room involves 3-4 meetings daily between all the grid-connected operators and the system operator with a mandate of reviewing energy offtake performance across the preceding intervals in a bid to ensure maximum utilisation of available capacity to supply end-users.
